Public opinion has a tendency of swinging from one extreme to the other. Some people are heroes today and villains tomorrow. Equally others are villains today and heroes tomorrow. South Africa is a classic example of this weather-like change in assessment of people because the country--as in its current form--was founded on principles that were at one stage offensive to public opinion and/or collective conscience. Today it sounds so strange and even laughable that merely less than twenty years ago, South Africa subscribed to a system in terms of which people were classified according to race. Who can forget that FW de Klerk was vilified among the white community—or some sectors thereof—for succumbing to the pressure of the liberation movement?
Every time I am in a city like Polokwane (formerly Pietersburg) and look around I am struck by how odd it seems that such a beautiful city's white residents voted "NO" to change when a referendum was conducted in the early 1990s. A half-drunk friend of mine once summed up the nature of public opinion and collective conscience when he cynically stated: "sometimes I wonder where all the white people who supported apartheid have gone because every white person I know was either opposed to or disapproved of apartheid". With that profound wisdom from my tipsy friend, I want to try to look at Julius Malema and his sins objectively.
Who is Julius Malema?
Fiona Forde, by writing a book on Malema, did many of us a favour by taking the time to follow Julius Malema and tell us what makes the fiery leader of the African National Congress Youth League (ANCYL). In summary, Malema comes from a very poor background and was mainly raised by his grandmother. He was bitten by the political bug of revolution at a very tender age of about nine years. He grew through the structures of the ANC and its allies including Congress of South African Students (COSAS) which he led at some stage.
His presence in Limpopo Province was felt during the time of the premiership of Sello Moloto who is reported to have had confrontations and/or heated exchanges with Malema. This was during the time of mobilisation for Jacob Zuma's take-over of the ANC and the presidency of the country which materialised in 2007 and 2009 respectively. So Malema has proved himself in the ANC to the extent that political activism is a measuring tool employed in an inquiry of that nature.
Malema eventually graduated into the presidency of the ANCYL and declared that his mission was to make sure that Jacob Zuma becomes the president of South Africa. At the time, this was not the most fashionable of things to say, as Zuma was facing a myriad of legal problems ranging from corruption to rape charges. When people like Desmond Tutu expressed disapproval at the then likelihood of Zuma becoming the president of the country given his moral track record, it was Malema and his allies who defended Zuma and, among other things, hurled insults at him (Tutu). How many can forget their challenge to Tutu to declare his full sexual history before sitting in judgment of that of Zuma. It is noteworthy that Jacob Zuma and his allies did not--at least publicly--utter a word about this insult as was the case with many other insults. It was Thabo Mbeki who was shocked out of his ivory tower to call them to order but at the time he (Mbeki) was already Malema's enemy number one. So he was in no position to rein him in.
Zuma and his allies won the leadership battle against Mbeki and his supporters in Polokwane in 2007. From then on Malema was on the rise. Having won against the mighty Mbeki and his faction, he sought other targets. Senior members of the ANC such as Zola Skweyiya, Naledi Pandor, etc. were all attacked by this firebrand--at the time the darling of the Polokwane victors.
What went wrong? Why is the ANC getting rid of Malema?
Malema insulted all and sundry with impunity. Helen Zille, Mosioa Lekota, etc have all been at the receiving end of Malema's insults and--again--the ANC leadership turned a blind eye. Strangely and gradually signs of a rift started showing between Malema and Zuma and then the ANC was propelled into action. Malema's first charge was that of, among other things, likening Zuma to Mbeki. This seemed too petty in the context of the insults that had been hurled at other leaders (including ANC's). The ANC leadership's renewed vigor to rein Malema and his allies in can be seen in Floyd Shivambu's conviction for insulting (undermining?) Malusi Gigaba. Gigaba is junior to other leaders that ANCYL leaders had insulted before.
Equally importantly, Malema started talking about nationalisation and land distribution. Needless to say these are issues that occupy many of our minds and exercise (perhaps challenge) that of the ANC leadership. The core of the problem seems to be that the ANC leadership appreciates the power of economic forces. This explains why one of the first projects that Zuma undertook after the Polokwane conference of 2007 was focused on appeasing the market forces. Leaders like Vavi who had propelled Zuma into the presidency of the ANC, expressed displeasure at some of Zuma's assurances (e.g. that under his leadership there would be no deviation from the country's economic policies). But Malema--true to his character--was not about to be molded into a docile putty in the hands of the market forces even though he would take from the market what was available. He got the market forces and the right in the country really worried. It was therefore no surprise that the strengthening of the rand was the response of the market forces the day Julius Malema and other members of the ANCYL were convicted.
Is his career about to end?
Things do not look good for Malema and his allies as at the beginning of 2012. His only chance is the outcome of an appeal he has lodged against his conviction and expulsion from the ANC. What the decision-makers in that body will do is anyone's guess, but it looks like they can find justification for any outcome they render. This is a political game and the people sitting in that committee are politicians who have sympathies and prejudices without the burden of strict procedural guidelines they have to adhere to. If the judgment verdict (and rationale thereof) delivered by Derek Hanekom (chairperson of the committee that expelled Malema) is anything to go by the ANC can just shop around for ideas that support a particular verdict arrived at. It was not much the verdict and sentence that were wanting but the logic and rationale used to arrive at them. For every conclusion Derek Hanekom arrived at, he could equally have used such to arrive at the opposite conclusion.
However, Malema still has a fighting chance premised on the assumption that he still has some financial and political backing. If and when his appeal fails, he can approach the courts for the process to be reviewed and, if the experience of Mosioa Lekota and Mbazima Shilowa are anything to go by, it could take months or even years before the courts finalise the matter. He also has a chance to attend the upcoming ANC conference in Mangaung still in the presidency of the ANCYL. That conference has a final say in the matter. By the way, in between these two possibilities there is still the route of approaching the national executive committee of the ANC for reprieve. And signs are that there is division in that body.
At the end of it all the fight between Zuma and Malema is going to be with us for some time and neither is assured victory at this stage. If Zuma thinks his hold on political power and control of the wheels of patronage is a guarantee for success, he would do well to remember what happened to Mbeki in Polokwane (2007) who was in the same position.
All said and done, whatever happens to Julius Malema eventually cannot take away from his courage and strength of character. A lesser man in those virtues would be showing signs of disintegration with all the woes that he faces. Remember, over and above the ANC expulsion, the Hawks are after him, the Public Protector is on his case, the South African Revenue Service wants a piece of him, etc. As I say, whatever happens this leader from Limpopo has curved himself a significant space in history and may one day be remembered as a hero who talked truth to power and challenged conventional thinking around issues such as nationalisation of mines, redistribution of land, etc. It also a small victory that Malema and his allies have managed to force the ANC into researching the feasibility of nationalisation of mines. Isn't it strange that it took the younger generation led by Malema to force the ANC to do this? Wouldn't you think this would have been one of their priorities?
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